Zhang Zhongmou issued a warning
In the future, the cost of semiconductors will increase,
And cannot be self-sufficient.
Countries around the world are vying to invest sky-high prices to build semiconductor factories and develop their own semiconductor technology. In a change from the past mode of outsourcing and division of labor in the global semiconductor supply chain, even TSMC founder Zhang Zhongmou warned: "Not only will the cost increase, but technological progress may slow down. After spending hundreds of billions of dollars and a lot of time, the result will still be unsufficient.”
Among them, the United States plays a very important role. The United States is relying on its dominance in the chip field to sack global wealth. Whoever controls the chip controls the global strategic materials, which is stronger than oil energy's control over the world.
Tan Yaonan, a global policy expert, believes, "Now, a new strategic pattern of long-term competition between the United States and China has taken shape. No one will be able to change this pattern within three to five years. In this general pattern, Europe has already experienced it, and Russia knows it. Yes. Japan also knows that the pattern of confrontation has taken shape."
The U.S. fights China with all its strength and emphasizes the principle of strength
After U.S. President Biden took office, he first talked about the Position of Strength (Position of Strength). He talked about it more than once. In a recent visit to Tianjin, US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said that the United States must stand on the basis of the strength principle. On top of that, long-term strategic competition with China.
The core of the principle of strength is scientific and technological strength. The United States has counted the gap between its own scientific and technological strength and China in order to strengthen its own strength to compete with China; relying on continuous fiscal expansion and continuous Indian public debt, the United States has spent a lot of money on the market. Fiscal expansion of China pays attention to these things.
For the United States, competition with China is not just a competition between the so-called Thucydides trap and the ranking of powers, but a competition between values and systems; it is also a competition between democracy and authoritarian systems, as Biden said. Because the level is high enough, this demand is also supported by other allies. Within the United States, in the Washington decision-making circle, half a year before the end of Trump's term, there is no doubt about this direction.
Second, the concepts of globalism and free trade have been revised. Under the framework of US-China competition, the Biden administration often said that economic security is national security. Therefore, although the United States supports free trade and globalism, it still needs to accumulate food and put important technological elements within the grasp. The place is best within its own country, or at least allies with the same ideas.
Global consensus: Semiconductors are already strategic materials!
It's a matter of life and death!
The increase in semiconductor costs is a strategic necessity
But is this only the United States thinking about these things? The EU and Germany are also very clear that semiconductors are already strategic materials. This is definitely not under the framework of free trade, which can be imported and exported freely, and produced wherever it can be cheap. The increase in cost is considered to be a strategic necessity. This is a matter of life and death. In the semiconductor industry, free trade may no longer come back.
The global definition of strategic materials has changed. In the past, it was rice and tanks, and later it was semiconductors. In the future, we must look at this game, not just the United States and China, but the United States, China, Europe and Japan must look at it together. Their market size and technological strength will affect the situation of the semiconductor industry.
For Taiwan, Taiwan’s semiconductor industry has been a beneficiary of free trade in the past few decades, but will this environment remain the same forever? The whole world is asking, why must it be done in Taiwan? Chips are no longer ordinary commodities that are produced wherever they are cheap.
Now, it is a critical moment for TSMC and Taiwan to reposition themselves strategically. It is necessary to re-examine this situation, not just from the current balance sheet. TSMC used to be funded by the government of Taiwan and Philips of the Netherlands. Now TSMC can still use this model to form a joint venture with the German government. Through government subsidies and capital contributions, TSMC’s scale has been expanded by 5 to 10 times. This is in the capital market. It's totally possible.
In the future, there may be Nissan, Deutsche Semiconductor, and American Semiconductor Manufacturing. TSMC’s model will be replicated in various countries. Taiwan should also reposition its core values. It is not just a manufacturing center for advanced semiconductors. Taiwan is the birthplace of TSMC. Status is still important. Repositioning oneself as a core talent, the birthplace or hub of technology, and combining Taiwan’s democratic system and lifestyle with its original technological capabilities can all form Taiwan’s new core values and expand its influence through TSMC’s internationalization. . Similarly, TSMC’s old rivals Intel and Samsung will not stick to their original turf, and a big fight is about to begin.
However, companies other than TSMC must be aware of the fact that they must choose sides. The technology war between the United States and China is also a battle of national power. Both sides must develop their own technologies and systems, even if it is more expensive and slower. Will switch to the opponent's technology. The old days when Taiwanese businessmen diverged between the United States and China have passed.
